Can regime change in Iran be done from the air?
Khomeini: Life of the Ayatollah by Baqer Moin, 1999.
Trump believes he can create regime change in Iran by bombing from the air.
The reality, as students of history would say, is that there cannot be a regime change without an external agent coming in. About 50% of the people would be part of the regime, either benefiting from it or part of its apparatus.
Foreign boots are needed on the ground.
In China, Chiang Kai-shek lost to Mao, despite holding all the cards and having more soldiers, the moment the Japanese invaded China.
Hitler’s Germany was a divided regime. Many Germans were not happy with Hitler, but they acquiesced, cooperated, or merely lived an existential life.
Many saboteurs tried to kill Hitler, but no regime change was possible despite the massive fire bombings of cities like Dresden and Cologne (war crimes). Hitler only lost control when the Russians invaded.
Iran is an ancient nation. The Persians are a proud race. They don’t accept Arabic as their language.
Khomeini was able to do regime change only because (external agent) Carter withdrew support for the Shah and because the bazaars’ merchants networked together with the strong Islamic institutions, leading to riots in the 1979 revolution.
The moderates and Carter persuaded the Shah to abdicate, thinking that they could still control Iran. But Ayatollah Khomeini, then in exile in Iran, returned to lead the Islamist revolution.
Khomeini by Baqer Moin is still the best biography despite being an old work. It is the most complete cradle-to-grave biography.
The Gulistan, written by a renowned Persian poet, Sheikh Saadi, in 1258, is a collection of moral tales that emphasize the importance of justice, compassion, and ethical values. This copy here is beautifully illustrated and a joy to read and see.
P.S. Khomeini was given exile in France by Valery Giscard d’Estaing because the French thought they could use him later to counter America. There lies the folly of big powers’ thinking.