Iran has learned from the 2025 war and from the US how to leverage its strength.
From Trump’s forced “takeover” of the Panama Canal from an HK company, Iran is now controlling the Hormuz Strait to allow a handful of favoured ships from allies to sail through this key waterway of only 40 km at its narrowest.
The Iranians are now saying that after the war, they will control passage through this strait. It is reported that they recently collected USD 2 million for a tanker to transit. (FT 21 March 2026).
How did Trump and officers miscalculate so badly in the decision to do a sneak assassination of Iran’s top leader? Historians will have a field day.
It reminds me of the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbour. There was no detailed plan for the morning after.
Scott Anderson calls this state of mind “a story of hubris, delusion, and catastrophic miscalculation.” He was referring to the US delusions that resulted in the Iranian Revolution in his book, published in 2025. This is an excellent book.
An equally good book, but which examines the local resentments that gave rise to the Iranian Revolution, is Days of God by James Buchan, 2012.
Raya, 3rd day, 23 March 2026.